Markets were jolted on Wednesday as risk aversion rose sharply again and tariffs in the U.S. and Europe threatened to escalate. Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs on $3.1 billion of European goods, including dairy products, gin, beer, potatoes, planes and trucks, revived the threat of a trade war. The three major U.S. indexes and European stocks fell on the news, with Dow futures briefly down more than 800 points. The IMF issued a pessimistic forecast, further lowering the global economic forecast for this year by 4.9%, the previous forecast was 1.9%, the cumulative loss of the global economy is estimated to reach 12 trillion US dollars, consistent with the forecast of the World Economic Outlook in April 2020, the pessimistic economic outlook is also a major factor dragging down the stock market. Money returned to the safety of US Treasuries, the dollar index rallied above the 97 mark, the non-US fell back again. The price of gold rose again, but fell back to within a whisker of $1,780 before reversing course and closing above $1,760. The poor market sentiment coincided with a sharp fall in crude oil prices after disappointing US crude inventory data, with US crude down as much as 7% and Brent down 6%. The ECB releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting today, which will affect the European currency. The US data release in the evening will affect the dollar, has a direct relationship to the Dow futures and global stock markets, has an indirect impact on the non-US trend and commodity prices, it is worth focusing on. [Today’s Financial Data and Events] 14:00 Germany Gfk Consumer confidence Index for July 18:00 UK June CBI retail sales spread 19:30 The European Central Bank releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting 20:30 US durable goods orders for May 20:30 US weekly jobless claims 20:30 Final US real GDP for the first quarter 20:30 Final US real personal consumption expenditures for the first quarter 20:30 Final US core PCE price index for the first quarter 21:30 Fed Kaplan participates in the Q&A session of the webinar EURUSD The euro/dollar failed to extend its two straight gains as the dollar’s rally and news of a new round of US tariffs against the EU and UK sent the exchange rate below 1.1300. The 4-hour key EMA turned to resistance, focusing on whether the exchange rate can temporarily stabilize at 1.1250, and 1.1310/1.1335 resistance if it rebounds. Otherwise 1.1215/1.1990 support may be tried. 1.1310/1.1335 resistance 1.1215/1.1990 Supported GBpusD Gbpusd pulled back from a fresh 4-day high yesterday and broke below the 1.25 mark. Us trade relations with Europe also weighed. Technicals were blocked at the 4-hour key EMA. 1.2400 is likely to be tested, with 1.2390/1.2370 support to watch below. 1.2520/1.2540 resistance 1.2390/1.2370 Supported AUDUSD The cooling of market risk sentiment directly affects the performance of Aussie and NZD, Aussie/USD below 0.6900, 4-hour technical weakness, focus on whether it can temporarily stabilize around 0.6840, if it breaks below 0.6835/0.6815 support. NZD/USD also weak trend, need to pay attention to 0.6380/0.6365 support. 0.6900/0.6920 resistance 0.6835/0.6815 Supported USDJpy Usd/Jpy reversed losses and closed above 107 for the first time since June 16, but with safe haven support for the yen, it is important to keep an eye on the impact of overnight US data on the dollar, which could still fall back below 107 with 106.70/106.55 support to watch. 107.25/107.40 resistance 106.70/106.55 Supported Usd/CAD The sharp drop in oil prices weighed on the Canadian dollar, which gained for a second day against the Canadian dollar and topped its highest since June 15, trading above the 1.36 level. Staying on watch for a rebound in oil prices from the low levels and looking for guidance from US data, the dollar looks poised above 1.36 for the time being, watching resistance at 1.3655/1.3685. 1.3655/1.3685 resistance 1.3560/1.3530 Supported Spot gold Spot gold rose strongly yesterday, at one point close to a new 7 1/2 year high of $1780, but due to the strong recovery of the dollar, the end of the three straight rally, but risk aversion will still support gold, watch overnight US data for guidance, if the overall data improve will strengthen the dollar’s upward campaign, not good for gold rally. There’s even a chance to test below $1,760. Silver prices yesterday also fell sharply, the current concern 17.45/17.30 support. 1775/1778 resistance 1754/1751 Supported The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Wish you a happy transaction!