ATFX International: Trading in international markets remains dominated by US and European institutions and individuals, as evidenced by low volatility in financial markets over the Good Friday holiday and Easter Monday. EURUSD’s cumulative move over the two trading days was only 0.08%, with a high of 1.0927 and a low of 1.0877, a move of only 50 basis points. The bullish dollar index, EURUSD, lost only 32 basis points in five minutes after Friday’s non-farm payrolls report showed a further drop in the U.S. unemployment rate. If the market is open in Europe and the United States, EURUSD will fluctuate at least 50 basis points in five minutes, and may even exceed 100 basis points. It is expected that after the resumption of trading in the European and American markets on Tuesday, EURUSD will not fall. ATFX diagram Not only was the euro subdued after the non-farm index boosted the dollar index, but gold prices also fell from their highs. On April 5, the international gold price hit $2049.2 / oz, just a short distance from the record high of 2089.2. However, following the release of the non-farm payrolls report, gold’s rally stalled and the market fell below the $2,000 mark, showing signs of a technical correction. It is called a “technical correction” because gold’s bullish trend structure remains in place, with important support levels in play. The longer-term outlook for gold remains dependent on the performance of US inflation data and Federal Reserve monetary policy. On Wednesday at 20:30, the US CPI for March will be released, the previous reading is 6%, the forecast is 5.2%, the inflation rate is expected to fall further. The problem of high inflation in the US has eased so much that the Fed should have ended expectations of aggressive rate hikes, but because of the strong demand in the Labour market, the Fed is still signaling that the market will continue to raise rates. With the Reserve Bank of Australia having stopped raising interest rates last week and the Bank of Canada expected to follow suit this week, the global pause in interest rates will become mainstream. Even if the Fed does choose to raise interest rates in May, it is expected to be the last of the year, and the rate hike will be small. ATFX diagram The dollar index is taking advantage of the holidays to bounce back slightly. The market again stood at the 102 mark, but the short – term trend structure remains unchanged. As the prevailing market expectation is that the Fed will stop raising interest rates, the dollar index has lost its core upside logic, and the future below the 100 mark will be a high probability event. Bank of America’s liquidity problems, based on the Silicon Valley Bank episode, have come to an end, but the high interest rate funding environment in the US has not changed and liquidity problems are expected in other sectors as well. The biggest risk now seems to be in America’s housing market, which could see home prices fall more than expected because lending rates are too high. If so, the Fed could not only stop raising interest rates, it could start cutting them. The critical period of interest rate inversion in the US bond market has approached the three-month period, which means that the financial market is increasingly expecting the Fed to cut interest rates. This expectation will lead to the accelerated weakening of the US dollar index and the continuous rise of the gold price. ATFX Risk Tips, disclaimer clause, Special Statement: The market is risky, investment should be cautious. The above content represents the analyst’s personal views and does not constitute any operational recommendations. Please do not take this report as your sole reference. Analysts’ views are subject to change from time to time and are updated without notice. This article comes from the financial world